Chapter 4 Where are we now?

Chapter Summary

The world is rapidly approaching critical carbon budget limits, yet current national commitments (NDCs) fall drastically short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. The Emissions Gap remains huge, with current policies putting the planet on a path to 3–4°C of warming by the end of the century. Projections reported in the media are misleading because they include unrealistic assumptions about future carbon capture technologies. 

Our fossil fuel dependency remains deeply embedded in our global infrastructure. We have never stopped doing "energy addition", but the zombie concept of "energy transition" remains the dominant media story about what we are doing. In other words, renewable energy growth, while significant, has not outpaced the rising demand for energy, so our overall demand for fossil fuel continues to rise.

Efforts to address climate change have largely focused on individual actions rather than systemic shifts. The fossil fuel industry has strategically promoted this narrative to deflect attention from the need for a deep overhaul of the energy sector.